Last week, rebel forces in Eastern Congo withdrew from the town of Goma - located in North Kivu, bordering Congo and Rwanda. Yet, it was these rebel forces that humiliated Congolese President Kabila’s military forces in occupying the town in the first place.
Why did these forces - made up of the M23 rebellion and various militia groups - withdraw so soon from what seemed like a key strategic and decisive victory? Reportedly, a temporary peace treaty was established, although the intricacies of the treaty in question do not bode well for the future of North Kivu.
Timeline of Eastern Congo Conflict*
April 1, 2012 - Soldiers desert the Congolese Army to form the M23 group, setting up rebel operations in the North Kivu province of the Congo
April 11, 2012 - Congolese President Kabila authorizes the arrest of Bosco Ntaganda, the de-facto leader of the M23 rebellion
June 4, 2012 - International watchdog groups publish reports accusing Rwandan military officials of supporting M23 with troops and armaments
November 20, 2012 - M23 captures the border town of Goma, sparking an immediate summit between President Kabila of Congo, President Kagame of Rwanda, and President Museveni of Uganda.
December 1, 2012 - M23 forces withdraw from Goma
*This timeline is abridged; a more-detailed timeline can be found at this website.
It is clear that M23 forces were given the order to withdraw following negotiations between President Kabila and the M23 military general-at-large, Sultani Makenga.3
In any case, the influence of the Congolese government is stretched thin over the North Kivu province. The region continually sports bouts of anarchy with guerrilla militias raiding small towns and more organized forces partaking in illicit activities, including gold, tin, and coltan smuggling.5 The overall situation is proving to be more difficult for national actors as well, with President Kagame of Rwanda coming under constant scrutiny from neighboring states and international institutions amid allegations of armament provisions and facilitation of transnational crime networks.
At present, the region is seemingly volatile. Since the withdrawal, tensions between M23 and President Kabila have not been higher and signs of this conflict waning are weak. As with most cases of civil unrest, the demands from all parties involved are extreme, which makes compromise an elusive aspect. Predictably, M23 and their associated forces will get stronger before getting weaker, especially if they continue to receive support in funding from their closest neighbor and continue to sell lucrative resources to third parties.
References:
1) http://endgenocide.org/understanding-m23-and-the-current-conflict-in-the-drc-congo/
2) http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/12/07/article-2243965-16668BFD000005DC-189_634x415.jpg
3) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20565711
4) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/world/africa/congo-rebels-withdraw-from-goma.html?_r=0
5) http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120712111212-congo-waffa-04-horizontal-gallery.jpg
6) http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21567992-although-they-have-handed-back-city-rebels-have-not-faded-away-power-vacuum
 |
| M23 forces withdraw from Goma amidst cheers from the Congolese National Police |
Why did these forces - made up of the M23 rebellion and various militia groups - withdraw so soon from what seemed like a key strategic and decisive victory? Reportedly, a temporary peace treaty was established, although the intricacies of the treaty in question do not bode well for the future of North Kivu.
Timeline of Eastern Congo Conflict*
April 1, 2012 - Soldiers desert the Congolese Army to form the M23 group, setting up rebel operations in the North Kivu province of the Congo
April 11, 2012 - Congolese President Kabila authorizes the arrest of Bosco Ntaganda, the de-facto leader of the M23 rebellion
June 4, 2012 - International watchdog groups publish reports accusing Rwandan military officials of supporting M23 with troops and armaments
November 20, 2012 - M23 captures the border town of Goma, sparking an immediate summit between President Kabila of Congo, President Kagame of Rwanda, and President Museveni of Uganda.
December 1, 2012 - M23 forces withdraw from Goma
*This timeline is abridged; a more-detailed timeline can be found at this website.
It is clear that M23 forces were given the order to withdraw following negotiations between President Kabila and the M23 military general-at-large, Sultani Makenga.3
 |
| Sultani Makenga was sent on behalf of M23 to meet with President Kabila to express demands and negotiate the release of supposed political prisoners. |
With the rebels out of Goma, Kabila’s military forces have filled most of the current power structure, though residents of Goma claim that the army will be no better than the rebel occupation. For the past few years, the military has been known to participate in looting and other illicit activities themselves without worry of exploiting Goma’s residents.4 Ostensibly, the military may resume its previous behavior and activity with the rebels out of the picture.
 |
| M23 rebels and militias continue operations on the outskirts of Goma and throughout the province of North Kivu. |
At present, the region is seemingly volatile. Since the withdrawal, tensions between M23 and President Kabila have not been higher and signs of this conflict waning are weak. As with most cases of civil unrest, the demands from all parties involved are extreme, which makes compromise an elusive aspect. Predictably, M23 and their associated forces will get stronger before getting weaker, especially if they continue to receive support in funding from their closest neighbor and continue to sell lucrative resources to third parties.
References:
1) http://endgenocide.org/understanding-m23-and-the-current-conflict-in-the-drc-congo/
2) http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/12/07/article-2243965-16668BFD000005DC-189_634x415.jpg
3) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20565711
4) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/world/africa/congo-rebels-withdraw-from-goma.html?_r=0
5) http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/120712111212-congo-waffa-04-horizontal-gallery.jpg
6) http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21567992-although-they-have-handed-back-city-rebels-have-not-faded-away-power-vacuum
This is a very interesting situation, and I think it illustrates the turbulent environment that is impeding development and stability in so many countries. However, I am having trouble fully understanding this case. Would not the M23 withdrawal signal a decrease in vigor? M23 will still be very strong, but if they are making demands and attempting to present a more formidable force, I certainly do not believe oddly withdrawing from an important town is the right method.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, the only specific demand M23 seems to have publicized has been the release of political prisoners. I believe M23 leaders, especially Makenga, were offered personal concessions - be it money or otherwise - from Kabila as long as they withdrew from Goma. News reports are definitely mixed, though, which makes it difficult to see through the lines and examine what is really going on between the involved actors here...
ReplyDeleteEven though M23 withdraw from Goma, it is my understanding that they occupy most of the land around the city and can move back into the city at any time? I wonder even if Kablia gives into M23 demands (which seem unclear at best) would the conflict actually stop on either side?
ReplyDeleteIt also might be interesting to note that the UK stopped aid to Rwanda amidst reports that Kagame is supporting M23 and there have been some calls for Obama to stop the US' aid to Rwanda as well (the US has withheld roughly 220,000 from Rwanda over this but UK suspended 16 million). This retreat that Megan pointed out, definitely seems more symbolic than strategic for the military. So it might be that the sort of sanctions and the international outcry towards Rwanda have influenced it, either as orders to retreat or the pressure aided talks.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/07/2012711172138525791.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20553872