South African Election

South African Election

On Tuesday South Africa re-elected President Jacob Zuma as head of the African National Congress in a landslide victory. Zuma retained leadership of the African National Congress, which has been the political party ruling the country since the end of apartheid in 1994. His position as leader of the ANC makes him a front-runner for the national presidential elections in 2014, which he is predicted to undoubtedly win.

            The election did not come with all good news; events leading to it gave insight into the lingering stain left by apartheid. On Sunday four men were arrested and convicted of treason for planning to bomb Tuesday’s conference. Four white males planned a bomb attack to kill Zuma and other ANC leaders in an effort to create their own Boer nation, Boer’s being the white descendents of Dutch settlers, and end ANC rule in South Africa. Two of the men were found to members of a fringe Afrikaner group called the Federal Freedom Party. Most white South Africans have accepted the ANC’s rule since 1994, but if they fail to incorporate more white politicians the possibility of these fringe groups becoming more extremist is likely. South African has handled the transition from apartheid better than anyone could have expected but even now 18 years later there is still mending to do. This attempted attack has bolstered the trend of political killings, which have been on the rise in the last two years, and underlines some of the social issues still plaguing South Africa.

            Zuma though widely likely by the public, has been criticized for is inability to control the widening gap between the rich and the poor. This disparity has led to unrest in several areas of the country including the miner’s riots that have led the deaths of over 30 miners.

Sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20765678

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/12/20121217142659901175.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/12/2012121810423119349.html

Central African Republic gripped by Turmoil

Early Tuesday morning the Seleka Alliance launched a full fledge attack on the Central African Republic mining town of Bria. They were able to repel government troops and seize control of the town. This is the fourth town that has fallen to the rebel alliance in the last two weeks and is representing some serious problems for the Central African Republic.

This is the most recent advancement in the two-week-old rebel offensive seeking to overturn the CAR government, led by President Francois Bozize. The Seleka Alliance is made up of three rebel groups who have been passive since a ceasefire was signed in 2007. The reason for the new upheaval is an accusation made by the groups that President Bozize has violated terms of the ceasefire. With the situation slipping out of control, Bozize requested help from northern neighbor Chad who promptly sent troops to reclaim Bria. This is not the first time Chad has helped the Central African Republic nor Bozize. President Bozize himself came to power with a successful coupe in 2002 with the aid of Chad. Bozize remained in power by winning the presidential elections in 2005 and 2011. To stop the uprising in 2007 Bozize agreed to release political prisoners and make payments to the rebel group. He has not met either of these agreements leading to the recent violence.

Bria is a diamond-mining town, which supports a large portion of the CAR’s economy. With its capture the Seleka alliance are affectively blocking major trade routes as well as disrupting the cultivation of one of CAR’s main resources. The alliance has have vowed to continue its offensive until the terms of the original ceasefire have been met.

Sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20775788

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20777922

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/rebels-african-republic-towns-18005886#.UNFc0bs6nJc

Nigeria's Rise

As the most populated country in all of Africa, Nigeria has shown exemplary fiscal progress and remains a unique member of West Africa. Nigeria has made strides to imitate a democratic society through fair elections and more government transparency. In the most recent election of 2011, it was reported that there was relatively little voter fraud and as a result little violence in the aftermath of elections. Nigeria has repeatedly been considered a regional power as the "most populous country in Africa, the second biggest economy, the third largest military power and the biggest oil producer (10th oil producer in the world). The country's oil reserves have brought tremendous revenue into the country and put it on track to being one of the "Next Eleven" economies. Nigeria politically and economically influences many of the West African countries, especially since many of its neighboring countries' economic activity is concentrated in Nigeria. The economic future of Nigeria seems promising.

Although Nigeria is poised to become of the most powerful African nations, social issues within the country threaten to hinder economic mobility. The insurgency of the Boko Haram who seek to eliminate western influence and establish sharia law have terrorized the population for nearly a decade. Current Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has continued to fight the armed group, constantly coming up with new tactics to oust the Boko Haram. In an attempt to go a different direction in combating the Boko Haram, Jonathan recently fired the national security adviser as well as the defense minister. Perhaps a new strategy is what the Nigerian government needs to halt the crisis. As long as the Boko Haram exists in such a resource rich country, the government will have difficulty controlling their resource plots and stopping the rebellion. This will certainly negatively impact Nigeria's rate of growth and movement towards becoming the most powerful nation. Another social crisis that inflicts Nigeria's development are the growing ethnic tensions between rival ethnic christian and muslim groups. The feud between the ethnic groups has turned areas of Nigeria into volatile, destroyed cities. 

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/africa/2012/07/201272483549668971.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/06/20126275516425789.html

http://www.westafricagateway.org/west-africa/country-profiles/nigeria

Guinea-Bissau losing hope

Guinea-Bissau is my risk analysis country, but i thought i would talk about them because they have been making the news quite a bit lately. The country suffered another military coup in April 2012, and have since been in a state of turmoil. The transitional government heading the country has been looked on with questionable eyes from the rest of the world, the countries already massive drug problems have worsened, and they are at risk of losing immperative financial aid. There have been talks with the focus on establishing constitutional rule back into the country, but no progress has been made thus far. The UN expressed concern today that things are not moving quickly enough, and I worry that the corruption in government and the integration of the drug trade in Guinea-Bissau is making the possibility of  a legitimate government in this country non-existent. China is also involved in giving this country aid, and with low levels of care about the country itself, it seems China is trying to aquire natural resources with this aid rather than help them establish a government. Without massive assistance from the rest of the world, I think we may be seeing the beginning of the end for this country for a long time.

Source
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=43770&Cr=bissau&Cr1=#.UMuRjrsqRlw

Reforming the Aid Industry

In 2006 I was working on developing a new product line in a flour mill owned by the largest American food company. Testing the system would produce at least 200 metric tons of flour that would technically meet government specifications for edibility, but would be unmarketable because of contamination and variable quality. When presented with this information the project manager just laughed, “We don’t throw anything away; Animals or Africans.” My puzzled look elicited an explanation, “If it’s too bad it’ll go to cattle feed; if it still tests as flour, it’s bagged for aid. We even get paid for our trash!”

            The problems with traditional food aid start at the source and continue through to the recipient. It provides a convenient dumping ground for surplus and substandard food stocks, leads to long delays in aid arrival (up to 90 days for U.S. sourced aid to reach the African interior), and distorts local economies with a sudden influx of cheap or free staples driving local producers out of the market. This last effect can make a region permanently dependent on foreign assistance as the initial aid puts local farmers out of work, and first world subsidies allow foods to be sold below market cost ensuring continued dependence on the foreign product.

            There is a certain absurdity to buying a product on the US market and transporting it half way around the world to a region that may have perfectly functional markets within or close to the affected region. Indeed, for North American aid 40-50% of food-aid budgets are spent on transport and storage. Many organizations have pushed for direct cash grants to purchase food locally through regional markets. Doing so increases the amount of aid that a given dollar can purchase, and can deliver aid in a substantially shorter time. This approach also strengthens local markets, leading to a stable long term food supply.

            The EU has begun to respond by shifting aid towards cash grants, and the USDA has put $60 million towards the Local and Regional Procurement Project, a pilot program aimed at exploring the process of local sourcing. The money spent on US food aid ($2.3 Billion in 2010) currently goes to some constituents with considerable political clout, and they have resisted attempts to transfer to a grant based program. As mentioned in the introduction, this market provides American agricultural companies a lucrative dumping ground for unsellable product, while statute dictates that 75% of aid must be transported by American shipping companies. Even some NGO’s benefit from the current system, as they are allowed to “monetize” some aid by selling it on local markets.           

            If these USDA programs are serious about delivering aid, rather than providing another subsidy to agribusiness, reforms must be made to shift priorities to a grant system. This, along with the elimination of tariffs and other subsidies, could enhance food security throughout the developing world, as well as providing considerable development to the regions served in an efficient, market friendly way.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/jul/19/us-food-aid-special-interests-reform

http://www.fas.usda.gov/excredits/FoodAid/LRP/LRP.asp

http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bp71_food_aid.pdf

Django Sissoko named as Mali prime minister

The article I chose for my blog post was about Mali electing a new prime minister, Django Sissoko, after the former prime minister Cheick Modibo Diarra was forced to resign and now is arrested.  It was said that the military had a coup to force Diarra to resign although the military said they only facilitated it and did not force him to quit.  As many know Mali has been quite in disarray since the Islamists militants and Tuareg separatists seized control of the north while unhappy militants have also stirred up trouble elsewhere.  The president of Mali appointed Sissoko as prime minister after United Nations and the Security Council of Mali imposed sanctions over the former prime ministers arrest.  The president felt that appointing a civilian as prime minister as quickly as possible could facilitate Mali returning to a democracy faster to satisfy international calls to do so. 

I picked this article because Mali was a topic of discussion in class many times this semester most of all because it went from a stable democracy to very problematic because of these coups and military takeovers.  It was evident from the article that Mali is trying very hard to get things back in order by removing problematic leaders and revising leadership to garner support from the international community to receive help to defeat the other threats such as the heavily armed Islamist.  It is very sad to see a country that was stable and doing well just a little bit ago get ravaged by all these problematic groups and people, especially since there are not many stable democracies currently in Sub Saharan Africa.  I was confused though and wanted to bring up why the United States felt that Mali’s setback to democracy had to do with it s military.

We should care about this issue because if another democracy is completely lost in Africa, things will become more unstable and other countries that are currently democracies could fall to the same fate by copycat groups trying to take over a country.  More importantly though, we should care about this in a positive light because we can see that Mali is trying to solve its internal problems by getting new leaders from a non biased area such as the new prime minister being a civilian, this will reduce the amount of danger he could pose because he is not intertwined with other corrupt leaders or military groups.  All in all, we should be worried about Mali and at the same time feeling good about Mali because there is a lot of turbulent activity in the country right now but at least the president knows what to do to start restructuring and getting things back on track to return democracy to the country. 

Based on what we learned in class this conflict can go one of two ways, the leadership restructuring will allow better control to be taken of the country and therefore better organization in attacks against rebel and terrorist groups that don’t belong in Mali.  The other way it could go is that this new prime minister along with other possible new leaders do not cut it and are not fit to take control of the conflict therefore letting it get out hand and lessening the possibility of return democracy to Mali.  In the end, policy makers should focus on Mali’s military and get that under control because with all the Coups and rebels that are rising from the military, Mali won’t be able to fight off the Islamists and other groups very easily if their military is not cooperating.  I have noticed that policy makers in Nigeria and western Africa are taking charge by giving Mali reliable military support to fight because that is what they need most right now to stabilize the country.

 Work Cited:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20687562

Gaining Ground on Al-Shabaab

Forces from the Somali Army and the African Union have been making progress against the Somali based cell of al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab. Most recently this coalition of forces took control of the town of Jowhar, which had become a safe haven for al-Shabaab. Over the past year a new campaign against the militant Islamist group has shrunk its holdings down to a few small rural areas. Also assisting in the efforts are troops from Kenya and Ethiopia. Both countries have stepped across the border in support of the effort against al-Shabaab.

            It is no mystery that the United States is very involved as well in this effort. Two American citizens on the FBI’s most wanted list are considered operating members of al-Shabaab. The idea of safe haven for an al-Qaeda affiliated organization is not good for national security. General Carter Ham, the commander of Africa Command, has praised the effort and called it a model for future campaigns against extremist groups.

            Closing in on a year of this revitalized campaign it is as important as ever for this coalition of forces to remain on the offensive. The United States could also consider a higher level of assistance in this area to help wipe out the remaining cells of al-Shabaab.

Alexander, David. "Fight against Al Shabaab Instructive Model for Future: U.S. General." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 03 Dec. 2012.

"FBI €” Most Wanted Terrorists." FBI.

Nor, Omar. "Somali Army Captures Key Town from Al-Shabaab Rebels." CNN. Cable News Network, 09 Dec. 2012.