Escalating Violence in Guinea

Ethnic Tensions Threaten to Derail Guinea’s Upcoming Elections and its Promising Future

Like many African Countries, Guinea is divided by ethnic groups and the two major ones are the Malinke which consist of 35% of the population and majority of the military, and the Peul who are of Muslim decent and consist of 40% of the population. Tensions between these groups have dated back to Guinea’s independence in 1958. Since then, Guinea’s history has been marked by three decades of dictatorship.

    Only two years ago, Guinea appointed it’s first freely elected president, Alpha Conde. Hailed as “West Africa’s Mandela”, Conde promised to unite Guinea’s rivaling ethnic groups, the Malinke and Peul. Yet, two years later, little progress has been made as riots and ethnic violence have broken out in the capital, threatening to escalate as the elections draw closer. Falling short of his campaign promises, many are accusing Conde of inflaming the ethnic hatred as much as the opposition and of tribalism. It is believed that both the opposition and Conde have been playing on people’s fears, encouraging ethnic hatred, is so they can get an electoral base. The situation in Guinea has reached a critical point where ethnic violence is breaking out in neighborhoods and security crackdowns on the opposition groups have been common.

The reason this event is very important is that Guinea was showing a lot of promise after it’s free elections. At the beginning of his term, Conde received international praise for trying to reform the army, making it more accountable to the people and prosecuting soldiers who caused atrocities. Also Guinea recently received more than $2 billion worth of debt relief from the IMF and World Bank, which was going to be used to for building infrastructure and kick start economic growth, which was projected to be in the double digits within a few years. Yet with escalating violence, Guinea stands to lose more than half of that aid and a lot of foreign investment. A country whose people live on less than a dollar a day with no access to clean water, education and health care cannot afford to go back into decline.

Unfortunately, the events currently happening in Guinea are nothing new in Africa and outlook does not seem very positive. There are many theories that we have learned that apply to Guinea’s situation. Firstly, Guinea is extremely rich in natural resources; it is the leading exporter of bauxite and has many iron ore, gold and diamond resources. Unfortunately instead of benefiting the development of the country, this causes many groups who are in power to try to control these resources and gain all the capital from it which can be seen through it’s long dictatorial history and rival power groups. Also, countries like Guinea, which have come from long-term dictatorships, do not usually transition well into a democracy. After all, how is a country expected to suddenly setup the pillars of democracy and be able create the institutions, which place the power in the people’s hands. Corruption will still exist and is very rampant in the country. Another unfortunate prediction of Guinea’s current events is the escalation of ethnic violence and the spillover effect it can have on it’s neighboring countries. This can be seen in the example of Rwanda where the genocide did not simply end but later continued on in its neighboring countries and deeply damaged their potential. Many parallels can be seen between Guinea and the recent events in the Ivory Coast where there was a huge surge in violence during the elections and it is still recovering from civil wars. This is also seen in its other neighbors such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Mali.

Unfortunately, little can be said on what should be done. In an ideal world, the two main political groups will come to a consensus to hold elections that are transparent and fair as soon as possible before the violence escalates. Another solution could be seen in dividing the country the way Sudan has done between the two major ethnic groups yet this seems even less of a possibility. Considering these patterns are nothing new, if a clear solution is out there, it would have already been implemented and would have prevented a lot of it’s neighboring countries in the “coup belt” from escalating into violence. Yet, as of now, what is on the table is civil war, another coup and even genocide.

Works Cited

"Guinea Secures $2.1 Billion Debt Relief from IMF, World Bank." Chicago Tribune. N.p., 26 Sept. 2012. Web. 23 Oct. 2012. <http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-26/news/sns-rt-us-guinea-imfbre88p1mx-20120926_1_debt-relief-president-alpha-conde-simandou-development>.

"Times LIVE." Guinea Ethnic Divide Defies 'West Africa's Mandela' -. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Oct. 2012. <http://www.timeslive.co.za/africa/2012/10/24/guinea-ethnic-divide-defies-west-africas-mandela>.