The Political Complexities of Botswana

As analyzed in class, Botswana’s political system creates complicated conclusions. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has won every election since 1965, which would certainly seem to be more characteristic of a one-party system than a democracy. However, the opposition parties have simply not been serious contenders. This status quo is being slightly challenged now, though. As is discussed in my selected article, the percentage of Batswana affiliated with the BDP has plunged from 55% in 2008 to 39% now (Letswamotse). This trend was briefly discussed in class, but it has many important implications.

The BDP should indeed be slightly concerned. A 16% drop is quite significant and highlights that the BDP is performing inadequate in certain aspects. In theory, this is a perfect opportunity to strengthen the democratic values. The BDP should reassess its focus to become more aligned with constituents. It is risking falling into complacency now. However, the opposition parties need not be too encouraged by the decline. Even though the BDP percentage dropped, the shares of all the opposition parties combined is still not larger than that of the BDP (Letswamotse).

Another point of discussion is the large number of independents in Botswana: 39% of voters (Letswamotse). These individuals could be quite valuable to the opposition parties as the latter fight to appear as credible threats to the BDP reign. The independents will not be decisive in the short-term, but the BDP cannot afford to ignore them. That voting bloc may be decisive in future elections.

Botswana is in a very delicate situation currently. The popularity of the BDP is declining, but with no serious competition now, there is little incentive for the BDP to care. If an electoral victory is certain, why spend resources to improve representation and approval? This manner of thinking could be devastating. The democratic system in Botswana would be weakened, and because Botswana is such a model nation to the rest of the continent, its actions would likely be duplicated elsewhere. Fortunately, the BDP has proven itself principled over its long duration in power, and there is little reason to believe that it will about-face now. However, there still should be external pressure for the leaders to remain accountable. As well, there could also be pressure for opposition groups to consolidate. Together, the opposition to the BDP would be much stronger, which would generate productive competition and move the electoral process into a more democratic two-party system.

Letswamotse, Phaladi. “50% say they would vote BDP tomorrow.” The Botswana Gazette. 23 Oct. 2012.